E-Briefing March 6, 2000 Super Tuesday is less than 24 hours away, making this one of the most important weeks in the American election-year cycle. This week's University of Cincinnati e-briefing brings a fresh perspective on events and their significance to the regional and national scene. Table of contents 1. McCain questions hang over Republicans A. Can crossovers carry Ohio? B. What happens if McCain fades? C. How did McCain happen? 2. Measuring the Internet's impact on campaigning A. Politics as usual B. Speaking to a younger generation? 3. What about upcoming Congressional races 1. McCain questions hang over Republicans A. CAN CROSSOVER CARRY OHIO? Crossover voters -- independents and Democrats who have chosen to vote in Republican primaries -- have helped Arizona Sen. John McCain claim his biggest victories thus far in the presidential primaries. How much help is crossover voting likely to garner for McCain on Super Tuesday in Ohio? "Where other states have seen anywhere from a moderate to significant amount of crossover voting in their primaries, our polling is showing that Ohio is unlikely to see a similar phenomenon," said Eric Rademacher, director of Public Polling for the Ohio Poll conducted by UC's Institute for Policy Research. "...Ohio partisans traditionally vote in party votes and don't jump, and that's what we're still seeing." Part of the reason that Ohio differs is that Ohio's primaries are also not quite as open as some states. If a Democrat wants to vote in a Republican primary, or vice versa, the voter must sign a document declaring allegiance to the party whose primary it is. The final Ohio Poll looking at Ohio's primary will be released at 5 p.m. today (Monday, March 6). To have immediate access to that data, check out the Institute for Policy Research's web page at http://w ww.ipr.uc.edu/survey/ohiopoll/opfront.htm. contact: Eric Rademacher, 513-556-3304 B. WHAT HAPPENS IF McCAIN FADES? UC political science professor George Bishop thinks things could get really interesting if McCain's candidacy falls short."The interesting question about (Ohio's) primary is how well will McCain do, but later on, the question could become where do his people go if he loses," Bishop says. "I think a lot of these people will not back Bush." Bishop believes one of the forces that have energized McCain's candidacy has been Republicans who have a real dislike of Bush. If and when Bush locks up the Republican nomination, Bishop expects Bush to begin a move back to the political center as he prepares for the general election. "He'll work towards the center the moment he gets the nomination," Bishop says, "but I'm not so sure he can reclaim those voters." Bishop's interest in monitoring the electorate carries over to his duties as director of UC's Graduate Certificate Program in Public Opinion and Survey Research. The program helps prepare students for the special demands of a career in polling, a field where opportunities are plentiful for qualified professionals. UC is one of six universities nationally that offers a program in this specialized area of political science. contact: George Bishop, 513-556-5078 C. HOW DID McCAIN HAPPEN? James Stever, head of UC's political science department, thinks John McCain's military background played a part in his surge in popularity, and Operation Desert Storm helped. "Desert Storm was a wakeup call. The Bush strategy of employing reservists and the National Guard has evoked a lot of interest (in politics) with not just the military, but with their family and friends. The health issues from that time continue to percolate." Stever says these same groups (military, family and friends) now feel put-upon and vulnerable. McCain appeals to them as someone who offers more support and is against overdeployment, while at the same time emphasizing winning military campaigns through strength and not just keeping the peace. "You take this grass roots movement and combine it with the general perception that the highest offices in the land -- and not just the presidency -- have languished because the bearers of those offices lack the virtues of honor and duty, and that is powerful. Go back to Nixon and look...how Carter elbowed in on the strength of the morality issue and you begin to see how relative unknowns like Carter and McCain can sweep to popularity as quickly as they have." contact: James Stever, 513-556-3305 2. Measuring Internet's impact on campaigning A. POLITICS AS USUAL In a new book by UC political science faculty members Michael Margolis and David Resnick, "Politics as Usual: The Cyberspace 'Revolution,'" the authors don't believe the Internet is influencing politics as much as popular perception suggests. Margolis and Resnick are both paying close attention to the presidential campaigns. What they're seeing doesn't veer far from other recent campaigns they've studied -- established political forces continue to dominate, even while absorbing the Web into their efforts. "But there are advantages," said Margolis. Campaigns can save considerable communication costs, and they can use the Internet for organization. Jesse Ventura's campaign (for Minnesota governor) was very successful in organizing and moving people around with the Internet." Much has been made of McCain using the Internet to raise between $4-5 million for his campaign. Ironically, though, Resnick points out: "What's he spending that money on? Traditional media buys." McCain's fund-raising is showing one variation on Internet use the authors find interesting. Early on, McCain was able to attract a lot of small donors, compared with his opponents. "Political fund-raising on the Internet does facilitate small contributors, if you decide to go after them," Margolis said. contact: Michael Margolis, 513-556-3310; David Resnick, 513-556-3302 details at: http://www.uc.edu/info-services/polinet.htm B. SPEAKING TO A YOUNGER GENERATION? Kim Downing, director of Research Services for the Ohio Poll and an expert in political communication, has also been watching for signs of the Internet's influence on the current presidential campaigns. "Demographically, Internet users tend to be younger folks, so what they're doing is something to keep an eye on during this campaign. That is a group that traditionally has lower turnout at the polls. If they're using the Internet as an information source, it will be interesting to see what they're going to do with it." In particular, Downing thinks the way the Internet currently operates at least opens up the possibility that the influence of the mass media could diminish. contact: Kim Downing, 513-556-5082 3. WHAT ABOUT UPCOMING CONGRESSIONAL RACES Political attention in the middle part of the 1990s was dominated by the "Republican Revolution" in Congress and its leader, Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. So why isn't anyone talking about Congressional campaigns in 2000? Carl Rhodes, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Cincinnati who specializes in studying Congress, says the media has always focused more on the presidency. "The presidency is telegenic, and Congress is not media-friendly. It was unusual then that they covered Congress as much as they did." But Rhodes added that Congressional races in 2000 will have a lot to offer. "The upcoming Congressional election has a lot at stake. The...number of newer House of Representative members in both parties who are finishing up either their first or second terms, and by historic patterns, that's when incumbents tend to be most vulnerable. If they get to a third term, incumbency begins to kick in and strengthen." The Republicans hold a relatively narrow edge of 11 seats over the Democrats currently in the House of Representatives, so any changes could be significant. Rhodes, however, suspects the Republicans will hold onto their majority because a number of their Congressmen will be benefitting from the incumbency advantage and because long-term demographic shifts have taken place in the Deep South that favor Republicans. contact: Carl Rhodes, 513-556-3394 Click here to view previous UC e-briefings. E-mail reillymb@email.uc.edu if you would like to become a regular recipient of UC's e-briefings. Please provide your name, media affiliation, snail-mail address, e-mail address, phone and fax number.