E-Briefing May 20, 2000 In the six months left until the 2000 presidential election, polling figures will be closely watched. But just how valuable are polls? In this week's University of Cincinnati e-briefing, we examine the controversial concept of "deliberative polling," which departs from conventional opinion polling by creating a model that shows how individuals might respond, if they had more opportunity to think about the issues at hand. Table of contents 1. Defining deliberative polling 2. Finding its promise 3. Looking at it from other angles A. A traditional pollster's view B. Not practical enough for politicians? 4. What to expect in the near term A. Polling as a hot career option B. Europe's ready to deliberate 1. DEFINING DELIBERATIVE POLLING Deliberative polling is the brainchild of James S. Fishkin, chair of the department of government, University of Texas-Austin. It attempts to use television and public opinion research in a new and constructive way. The model calls for an initial polling of a representative sampling of voters, who are then invited to gather at a single place for an intensive period of education and debate. They are provided with balanced briefing materials, engage in small group discussions with trained moderators and participate in dialogue with competing experts and political leaders. At the end of the process, they are polled again. Resulting changes in their opinions represent the conclusions the public would reach if people had the opportunity to become better informed. "I became interested in the question: What would the country think on an issue if it had a good opportunity to think about it?" says Fishkin. Since he first began advocating the idea, 16 deliberative polling exercises have been held worldwide, with the most recent a national exercise in Australia prior to the November 1999 referendum on Australia's possible change from a monarchy to a republic. The most visible exercise in the United States came during the 1996 presidential campaign, when PBS broadcast "The National Issues Convention." According to Fishkin, each exercise has resulted in dramatic, statistically significant changes in views, or what he calls a poll with a human face. contact: 512-471-5121 2. FINDING ITS PROMISE Fishkin's model has found its share of support among the nation's leading political scientists. Among those intrigued by the idea is Robert A. Dahl, emeritus professor of political science, Yale University. "I think it has extraordinary promise as a very innovative institution. It needs to be tried out on more occasions in order to test its feasibility, but I think the possibilities are quite great," Dahl says. Dahl sees deliberative polling not as a development to replace conventional public opinion polling, but as something that may effectively augment it. "The problem that exists now is that public opinion surveys are representative if well done, but they don't show any kind of reflection or deliberation. People's opinions can change when they get the chance to think about issues or discuss them with others. You get a more developed or mature viewpoint. Not everyone changes, but a number of people do, and I think the experience of participating itself is going to send back into the community a number of people with a higher interest in these issues who might become more willing to participate in the process." Dahl sees deliberative polling as a tool Congress and other organizations might find useful during debates in supplementing election results and conventional polling. contact: 203-432-5267 3. LOOKING AT IT FROM OTHER ANGLES A. A TRADITIONAL POLLSTER'S VIEW Eric Rademacher, a research associate at UC's Institute for Policy Research and the director for Ohio Poll Public Polling, sees the deliberative poll as very different from the kind of work he does. One aspect he does appreciate, however, is the emphasis on issues and the depth of information available. The Ohio Poll seeks to determine the depth of feeling a voter may have on an issue and whether that passion runs deeper than loyalty to an individual candidate, so that that person becomes an "issue voter." On deliberative polling, Rademacher says "the common ground we all share is looking at more informed versus less informed voters and the way opinions can change with higher levels of information on issues and how votes can change based on higher levels of information on issues." With the way this year's presidential election is taking shape, he finds that to be a particularly relevant question. "(Fishkin) challenges you to think about how information is made available to people," Rademacher adds. "If this were to become a campaign full of issues, it will be interesting to watch and see how the campaign might shift based on if one or two issues become central." contact: 513-556-3304 B. NOT PRACTICAL ENOUGH FOR POLITICS? While he applauds the efforts that have gone into developing deliberative polling, David Resnick, UC associate professor and director of graduate studies in political science, finds it harder to see a practical role for the concept in the current political landscape. "It's a very interesting theoretical exercise. The idea of 'Trust the people, they are smarter than they're sometimes portrayed' is important theoretically," Resnick says. "But in the bigger context, this model assumes it is the people who influence policy. It's a politically progressive model. The reality is we have a democratic pluralism. It's a very complicated process, but the votes cast by the public are just one part along with the influence of many other groups that all come together to help form American policy." Resnick also has questions about how deliberative polling would fit into the political system, as well as how ongoing deliberative polls would be financed. contact: 513-556-3302 4. WHAT TO EXPECT IN THE NEAR TERM A. POLLING AS A HOT CAREER OPTION The University of Cincinnati recently responded to increasing demand by offering a graduate certificate program in Public Opinion and Survey Research. The program helps prepare students for the special demands of a career in polling, a field where opportunities are plentiful for qualified professionals. UC is one of six universities nationally that offers a program in this specialized area of political science. George Bishop, a professor of political science, directs the program. He is the author of a landmark study showing that people will often offer strong opinions even on unfamiliar issues. Bishop surveyed people, asking if they agreed or disagreed that the 1975 Public Affairs Act should be repealed. A full one-third of respondents gave a firm opinion, despite the fact that there never was a 1975 Public Affairs Act. contact: 513-556-5078 B. EUROPE'S READY TO DELIBERATE Deliberative polling gets its next big rollout this fall in Denmark. A gathering in that country is going to look at the issue of whether Denmark should switch its currency to the Euro. contact: James Fishkin, 512-471-5121 Click here to view previous UC e-briefings. E-mail reillymb@email.uc.edu if you would like to become a regular recipient of UC's e-briefings. Please provide your name, media affiliation, snail-mail address, e-mail address, phone and fax number.