E-briefing
Cuba 40 Years After the Missile Crisis: Cold War Still Lingers

I. Forecasts for the future

A. Politics intervene
B. Reasons for the status quo
C. Embargo no help
D. Hope for reintegration

II. Cuba's strategic standing

A. Differentiating between Cuban crisis and Iraq
B. An emigre's perspective

I. FORECASTS FOR THE FUTURE

A. POLITICS INTERVENES
Ann Twinam is a University of Cincinnati professor of Latin American history:
Professor Twinam often shows her classes a newspaper cartoon she has saved, showing all the recent U.S. presidents from Eisenhower to Clinton predicting that Fidel Castro will fall "any minute." In that spirit, she agrees with the general consensus that little is likely to change in Cuba until the aging leader is deceased. "A lot depends on how Castro dies - if he dies fast or if there is a lingering that allows other forces to come into play." At present, she says, "There is an entropy in Cuba that I don't think people in the United States understand. There is an unwillingness to break Castro's heart in a way, and a fear about what is going to happen. What will happen if Cuban exiles who left come back with titles to property that was long ago taken by someone else? People are unhappy, but they are afraid to act." She also believes the U.S. embargo policy is unlikely to change because of politics. In American elections, Florida has emerged as an important state to win, and the high numbers of Cuban Americans in the state are likely to hold sway.
Contact: 513-556-2141

B. REASONS FOR THE STATUS QUO
Louis A. Pérez Jr. is the J. Carlyle Sitterson Professor in History at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill and author of several books on Cuba including his most recent, "Winds of Change: Hurricanes and the Transformation of Nineteenth-Century Cuba" and "On Becoming Cuban: Identity, Nationality, and Culture:"

"The only prediction I can make is that whatever comes to happen, nobody will ever have predicted it. The variables in this are just so vast. Fidel Castro's parents lived into their 90s. Fidel Castro might live for another 20 years. I don't think immediate succession is any mystery. Most observers would agree that his brother Raoul will be the heir apparent. But clearly that is a stop-gap measure, a temporary solution. What will happen after that?" Perez suggests that the status quo in Cuba has been maintained for so long because:

1). There are Cubans who support Castro - no one knows for sure how many - who don't want change.
2). The most discontented segment has left the country.
3). Those who have remained must be careful not to appear to support U.S. interests.
Contact: 919-962-3943

C. EMBARGO NO HELP
Jon Hughes, University of Cincinnati professor of English, has traveled to Cuba seven times since 1985 as a photographer and writer. He is also the producer of a 30-minute documentary, "Cuba: The Caribbean Enigma," which has been shown on PBS affiliates in the United States and on television in the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Chile and Brazil:

As evidenced by the recent agricultural trade show featuring U.S. foods in Cuba, Hughes believes there is a lot of interest among U.S. businesses to normalize relations with their Caribbean neighbor. Hughes suggests that normalization and an end to the embargo are on the horizon, but not until Castro is gone. "Castro has been kept in power by the U.S. embargo. It would be difficult for him to stay in power if the relationship between the two countries was normalized. However, the embargo, established to cause an overthrow of Castro's leadership, has, ironically, kept him in power. If the embargo is lifted, I think we would see what happened in the Soviet Union as a result of perestroika."
Contact: 513-556-3938

D. HOPE FOR REINTEGRATION
Howard Tolley, University of Cincinnati professor of political science, had a rare opportunity to see Castro up close in December of 2000, when as part of the "Semester at Sea" program, the ship he was teaching on stopped in Cuba. The faculty and college students on board were invited to Cuba's National Assembly, where Castro delivered a five-hour talk. But it was the Cuban people who made the bigger impression on Tolley:

"What was striking to me was the expertise, the drive of the Cuban people, who have accomplished so much in spite of the embargo in providing education and medical training," Tolley said. "If that island can be reintegrated with its island neighbors and the Organization of American States, from which it has been excluded, that would be an ideal future. But a lot depends on whether the successors operate in Castro's fashion. It is such a small island. Hopefully there wouldn't be the kind of struggle that has gone on in places like Bosnia."
Contact: 513-556-3316

II. CUBA'S STRATEGIC STANDING

A. DIFFERENTIATING BETWEEN CUBAN CRISIS AND IRAQ
Richard Harknett, University of Cincinnati associate professor of political science and expert on American national security and international relations:
The role of deterrence makes the current crisis with Iraq much different from the Cuban Missile Crisis that some have compared it to, according to Harknett. "With the (Soviet) capability going into Cuba, we still had a deterrent that could contain that threat," Harknett says. "I would submit (Iraq and its links to terrorism) are more serious as a long-term threat to U.S. security, because we can't depend on deterrence against a non-state actor." Harknett adds that Cuba is no longer the strategic threat it may have been in 1962. "Questions about Cuba's future are purely economic and humanitarian, with issues like a massive outflow of refugees or the humanitarian costs of political instability. But I don't put either of those issues in the category of a strategic threat. A more reasonable parallel would be to look at Eastern Europe and the challenges the post-Communist states there have faced."
Contact: 513-556-3314

B. AN ÉMIGRÉ'S PERSPECTIVE
Edy Carro is a University of Cincinnati adjunct assistant professor who teaches business Spanish and a native of Cuba who came to the United States in 1966:
"We always thought Castro would get tired or die, but that has never happened. There is a big hope that when he dies the younger generation will be tired and demand changes." Carro, like many Cuban Americans, continues to help her relatives back in Cuba by sending food or money. "They really like money better because they can buy things in the government dollar stores." She adds: "As much as we would like to see the system go down, it's not really our concern any more. They are not a threat for the United States anymore."
Contact: 513-556-1833

To view past e-briefings, click here.

Subscribe to "e-briefings."