2. The Mess in the Middle East

3. Gasoline Prices and Availability Here and Abroad

4. The Energy Impact of Our Designs

BONUS: Ohio Poll on Energy Due Out in March

1. POWER PLAYS: ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION IN THE 21ST CENTURY

A. WILL CALIFORNIA SPARK A NUCLEAR COMEBACK?
"The recent electricity crisis in California reminds us of the need to have available a range of electricity sources to buffer us from shortages of one type of fuel," says University of Cincinnati geologist J. Barry Maynard, an energy expert. "Isn't it time to reconsider nuclear power plants? The two obstacles that have faced us in the past are high construction costs and the problem of waste disposal. The French have shown how standard designs can bring construction expenses into line, and they have pioneered in safe waste disposal that has been acceptable to local communities."

Maynard worked for the State of Ohio during the 1990s to conduct a long series of public hearings examining the issue of disposal of waste from both nuclear power plants and university research and medical operations. "The results of those hearings convinced me that safe and cost-effective waste disposal was achievable and should not be a reason to hold back from nuclear power. When we realize that natural gas will not supply our needs and that coal burning will inevitably accelerate global warming, it is inescapable that we will need a significant contribution from nuclear plants in our power mix."
Contact: 513-556-5034

B.THE ROLE OF COAL
"As recent events in California show, it is no longer possible to ignore the fact that the digital economy requires more electricity," says Attila Kilinc, department head in geology at UC. In the United States, 51% of electric energy is generated by coal, 19.7% by nuclear energy, 15.3% by natural gas, 8.3% by hydroelectricity, only 3.2% by petroleum and 2.4% by other means. "Even as the environmental movement disparages the use of fossil fuels in producing electricity, coal is making a comeback," said Kilinc. "It's no longer the dirty fuel of the past, thanks to new technology." Today electric utilities and independent power producers are investing hundreds of millions of dollars in coal-fired plants in order to boost their output of electricity. The basic attraction of coal remains its low cost and abundance.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates the world supply of coal at 205 years, crude oil at 110 years, and natural gas 63 years. They also estimate the US supply of coal at 251 years. Almost 90% of the electricity used in Ohio is produced at coal-fired plants. "Electrical companies are building new power plants that will use natural gas. But there hasn't been a large coal plant built in many years, and we risk becoming overly dependent on gas for electricity generation."
Contact: 513-556-3732

C. CLEANER COAL ON THE HORIZON
Clean coal technology research in the University of Cincinnati College of Engineering has been ongoing for over 15 years, with significant progress in the areas of reducing sulfur and nitrogen pollutants. Research sponsors have included the Ohio Coal Development Office, the U.S. Department of Energy, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the Electric Power Research Institute, Cinergy and numerous other private companies with over $4.5 million invested in clean coal technology. One system developed by UC researchers dramatically reduced sulfur dioxide emissions. Other projects improved the control of nitrogen oxides, often known as NOx pollutants. Those are a key component of urban smog. "Current research is focused on removing even higher levels of sulfor dioxide and NOx along with heavy metals including mercury," said Timothy Keener, director of UC's Air Pollution Control Laboratory. "Also, a new research effort has been initiated to study cost-effective methods of separating and sequestering portions of the greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide. The ultimate goal is to keep the environmental impacts and the cost of electricity production as low as possible."
Contact: 513-556-3676

D. TO DRILL OR NOT TO DRILL
University of Cincinnati biologist Michael Miller spent 27 years in the tundra of Alaska during the period 1964-1998, studying the environment before oil was discovered to the days of depletion in the Prudhoe field. "I have been a keen observer of what went on both in the oil camp and along the Alaska Pipeline during construction and operation," said Miller who is strongly opposed to opening up the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge for drilling. "The damage will come from the people, their living quarters, their roads, trucks, pads, and pipelines. The insatiable requirement for 3-6 feet of gravel on which to build living quarters if not drilling pads, will leave an imprint for several of our lifetimes," warned Miller. He says most Americans don't really appreciate what it means to have a "pristine" wilderness area. "Our country has been largely destroyed, from its magnificent mammals to the vegetation that covered it. Pristine is a term that can only be applied to ANWR once. After any oil mining on the property, its impact will be forever."
Contact: 513-556-9758

2. THE MESS IN THE MIDDLE EAST

A. THE IMPACT OF SHARON'S ELECTION
In a region fraught with uncertainty, some fear that the recent election of hard-liner Ariel Sharon as Israel's prime minister could have a negative impact on the Mideast major oil suppliers' willingness to sell to American interests. That is not a view shared, however, by Michael Dahan. Dahan is from Israel, but currently studying in UC's political science department on a Taft post-doctoral fellowship. "On the face of things, I do not see the elections impacting on oil and gas supplies, unless the violence escalates into a regional conflict, which is not likely to happen," says Dahan, a resident of Jerusalem. Dahan is in touch with others throughout the region through www.mevic.org, an online virtual community he founded to open intra-regional channels of communication and cooperation among academics. "The politics of the Persian Gulf, where most of the oil comes from, is usually divorced from that of Israel and its neighbors."
Contact: 513-469-6344

B.IS THE INFLUENCE OF THE MIDDLE EAST OVERRATED?
Abraham Miller, a University of Cincinnati professor of political science with an interest in security issues, says much more attention is paid by the world media to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict than its actual level of importance to governments in the Mideast. Therefore, Miller agrees that the election of Ariel Sharon is unlikely to affect oil availability in the United States. "The escalation of violence will be great fodder for the media and it will, as with most things in the media, be greater in appearance than in reality," Miller says. Terrorism will have little real impact on oil, Miller predicts. "It will have no impact, save perhaps to serve as an excuse to raise prices when that decision has already been made for economic reasons. Suppliers of oil need buyers just as much as buyers need suppliers, and the Saudis and the Emirates are so heavily invested in the West that an economic crisis here will have dire economic consequences for them, as well."
Contact: 513-556-2303

C. REMEMBERING THE '73 EMBARGO
The specifics may be fading from memory, but the Arab Oil Embargo of 1973 offers interesting insights into what can happen when politics and oil become intertwined. The embargo was the idea of the Saudis, in retaliation for U.S. and Western support of Israel in the October 1973 war with Egypt and Syria. One response by the U.S. government, recalls Abraham Miller, UC professor of political science, was to stage a massive military exercise in the Arizona desert. While top level staff denied any significance, soldiers crawling through the sand began calling the exercise "The Invasion of Saudi Arabia." Miller says that then-National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger "subsequently made frequent statements to the effect that anyone who thought that America was spending hundreds of billions of dollars on defense so its people could sit and shiver in the dark should think again. The message was not lost."
Contact: 513-556-2303

3. GASOLINE PRICES AND AVAILABILITY HERE AND ABROAD

A. EUROPE WORKS TO AVOID ANOTHER TRACTOR BLOCKADE
Among the lasting visions of last summer's spike in gasoline prices were traffic-stopping protests by London truckers and tractor blockades in France by angry French farmers. A repeat of those scenes is less likely this year, even if prices rise again, according to University of Cincinnati political science professor Joel Wolfe. "Those protests came about when petrol prices began cutting into the livelihood of three groups -- truckers, farmers and fishermen," says Wolfe, an expert on European politics. "Those groups were really able to coordinate their shutdowns, just by using their cell phones. They were really protesting the very high taxes European governments have built up on petrol through the years." In the wake of the protests, those governments have gradually made concessions which have lowered those taxes. That makes a return to trouble less likely.
Contact: 513-556-3307

B. WHY PUMP PRICES VARY FROM EXIT TO EXIT
Anyone who's taken a long trip on an interstate lately has noticed that gasoline prices can vary by nearly 20 cents a gallon from one exit to the next. John "Mike" Kunnen, president of the Cincinnati Gasoline Dealers Association, says the explanation is simple. "A gas station owner buys a load of gas, pays for it and can't sell it for less than he paid, unless he wants to go broke." So if one station is selling gas for $1.28, he or she bought it for a lower price than the station selling it for $1.48. "Gas station owners, in Ohio, make only 6 to 10 cents profit on each gallon of gas they sell. Consumers pay more in taxes on gas than dealers make in profit." Federal tax on gas is 18.9 cents. State taxes vary, but in Ohio, it's 22 cents.
Contact: 513-921-9000

C. DRIVING TOWARD $2/GALLON GASOLINE
Despite all the ups and downs in the price of gasoline in the United States lately, one veteran observer of the oil industry predicts that the major oil companies are trying to get the price up to $2 a gallon across the nation. Independent service station owner John "Mike" Kunnen, president of the Cincinnati Gasoline Dealers Association, sold gasoline for more than 50 years. While going through his archives recently, Kunnen found the following quote: "Gasoline was never much higher. But there you have a business that is in the hands of a few men, and they see that the price is kept up. It's not regulated by supply and demand. It's regulated by manipulation." Sounds like someone said it yesterday. But it dates back to 1931 and is attributed to Will Rogers.
Contact: 513-921-9000

4. THE ENERGY IMPACT OF OUR DESIGNS

A. PLANNING CITIES TO REDUCE ENERGY COSTS
Urban planner and architect Brenda Scheer is an associate professor of planning who has won national awards for her study of sprawl. She says that denser cities and denser suburban development would mean greater energy efficiency and savings for Americans, but that isn't likely to happen. "Roads are destiny," says Scheer. "The road system you start with is what you get, period. European cities have medieval road systems to this day." She added that many ancient Roman roads are still active highways today, and almost every street shown on a 1660 map of lower Manhattan is there today. That means it's virtually impossible to reshape America's sprawling suburbs into more energy-efficient, compact districts. In addition, she contends that Americans have a psychological attachment to wider living space. "Who came to America?" she asks rhetorically. "People who wanted out of the dense cities of Europe. Those values have been passed along the generations."
Contact: 513-556-0211

B. THE PAYOFF OF CROWDED CONDITIONS IN THE FAR EAST
International energy consultant David Edelman, director of UC's School of Planning, says light rail works best in Asia and Europe because of denser development there. He says it's less likely to work well in the widespread U.S. Edelman, whose previous international experience includes serving as associate professor of energy planning and policy at the Asian Institute of Technology in Bangkok, Thailand, added that denser settlements would mean that "waste" heat from, say, a manufacturing or industrial process could be used to heat other nearby homes and enterprises. In some cases, it can also be used to provide electricity. "For example, let's say you have a sugar mill. The 'waste' heat from the sugar processing could be used in a loop to meet the electricity demands of the plant itself. Similarly, when you have denser cities, the 'waste' heat in a close-knit district can be used to heat apartments in that district."
Contact: 513-556-2378

C. THE HIGH COSTS OF CONGESTION
Tim Lomax, research engineer with the Texas Transportation Institute, and fellow researcher David Schrank, assistant research scientist, study "urban mobility" in 68 cities annually. Then, they calculate the cost of congestion in terms of time and fuel for America's drivers. Travelers in the areas studied spent over $72 billion in lost time and wasted fuel in 1997 due to congestion. That adds up to about $755 per eligible driver pear year or about $3 per work day. In Los Angeles, the costs per driver were $1,370. The costs have increased each year of the study. Delay grew from 1.9 billion hours in 1982 to 4.3 billion hours in 1997. Wasted fuel increased from 2 billion gallons in 1982 to 6.6 billion gallons in 1997.

Remedies for congestion and its consequences must be part of a balanced approach, said Lomax, taking into account wider roads, lowering the number of vehicle trips, and working to "stagger" the number of vehicles on the road. For example, some Texas companies have offered van pools as an employee benefit. "A San Antonio insurance company does so even though there's relatively little congestion in that city. In Houston, which has much greater congestion, the oil companies had a lot of van pooling in the mid-70s and early 80s. It means greater energy efficiency in terms of fuel as well as improved productivity for the employer." More on the Texas Transportation Institute's studies can be found at http://mobility.tamu.edu/
Contact: 979-845-9960

D. ENERGY SAVERS AND WASTERS
Glen Brand, Midwest conservation organizer for the Sierra Club, said that Cincinnatians spent an average of 31 hours stuck in gridlock in 1997 -- a 500 percent increase since 1982. In terms of wasted fuel and productivity, the price tag comes to $515 million annually. "That's enough to build one new Bengals stadium every year," he quipped. (Figures are from Texas Transportation Institute studies.)

There is on energy bright spot: California's high-tech industry is becoming more energy-efficient in recycling computer chips and hardware is becoming more commonplace. "It's like the auto parts market," said Brand. "It's happening because it makes financial sense. Manufacturers are finding it more valuable to reuse than to make new parts and components."
Contact:<.b> 513-861-4001

E. RECYCLING EVERYTHING, EVEN GRAVEL
Architect Robert Dorsey, UC professor of construction science, says there is a slowly growing movement toward green architecture and sustainability that emphasizes recycled and recyclable materials. Recycled milk cartons are transformed into decks and benches. Asphalt and concrete from roadway repairs and repavings are "sifted" for gravel content, and that gravel is then used for new roadways or for fill under paving and building slabs. Wood, brick or steel from demolished buildings are sometimes reused. New building owners are often resistant to sustainable design because of higher capital costs. However, that resistance may fade as natural resources become scarcer. For instance, gravel supplies deposited in North America by the glaciers are now largely depleted. Recycling gravel is a must, according to Dorsey.
Contact: 513-556-5317

F. BUILDING A MORE ENERGY-EFFICIENT FUTURE
Designers are becoming more creative when seeking energy efficiency in buildings, according to architect Robert Dorsey, UC professor of construction science. Architects are designing buildings to make greater use of natural light to reduce the heat accumulation of artificial lights. Heat-recovery systems routinely loop heat released by lights, machinery and elevators back into warming the building, and computerized management of HVAC systems means buildings today are much more efficient than those built 30 years ago. Photovoltaic cells, which transform sunlight into electric energy, are now being found on everything from roof shingles and highway signs to sailboats. "I'm thinking of putting some of the cells on my own roof as an experiment," said Dorsey.

He added that Ford probably went the farthest in linking energy efficiency, aesthetics and employee benefits at its ongoing redesign Rogue Plant in Dearborn, Michigan. Part of the remake includes a park on the roof which will contain soil, plants, trees and grass. "It will be for the employees to enjoy and will provide excellent energy efficiency."
Contact: 513-556-5317

BONUS: OHIO POLL ON ENERGY
How are Ohioans being affected by energy issues this winter? Answers will come in March, with the release of results from the next Ohio Poll, conducted by the University of Cincinnati's Institute for Policy Research. The Ohio Poll is one of the best known public opinion surveys in the state, having interviewed Ohioans on a variety of political, social, economic and public policy topics since 1981.
To request results: 513-556-3304

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