In the six months left until the 2000 presidential election,
polling figures will be closely watched. But just how valuable
are polls? In this week's University of Cincinnati e-briefing,
we examine the controversial concept of "deliberative polling,"
which departs from conventional opinion polling by creating a
model that shows how individuals might respond, if they had more
opportunity to think about the issues at hand.
Table of contents
1. Defining deliberative polling
2. Finding its promise
3. Looking at it from other angles
A. A traditional pollster's view
B. Not practical enough for politicians?
4. What to expect in the near term
A. Polling as a hot career option
B. Europe's ready to deliberate
1. DEFINING DELIBERATIVE POLLING
Deliberative polling is the brainchild of James S. Fishkin, chair
of the department of government, University of Texas-Austin. It
attempts to use television and public opinion research in a new
and constructive way. The model calls for an initial polling of a
representative sampling of voters, who are then invited to gather
at a single place for an intensive period of education and
debate. They are provided with balanced briefing materials,
engage in small group discussions with trained moderators and
participate in dialogue with competing experts and political
leaders. At the end of the process, they are polled again.
Resulting changes in their opinions represent the conclusions
the public would reach if people had the opportunity to become
better informed.
"I became interested in the question: What would the country
think on an issue if it had a good opportunity to think about
it?" says Fishkin. Since he first began advocating the idea, 16
deliberative polling exercises have been held worldwide, with the
most recent a national exercise in Australia prior to the
November 1999 referendum on Australia's possible change from a
monarchy to a republic.
The most visible exercise in the United States came during the
1996 presidential campaign, when PBS broadcast "The National
Issues Convention." According to Fishkin, each exercise has
resulted in dramatic, statistically significant changes in views,
or what he calls a poll with a human face. contact:
512-471-5121
2. FINDING ITS PROMISE
Fishkin's model has found its share of support among the nation's
leading political scientists. Among those intrigued by the idea
is Robert A. Dahl, emeritus professor of political science, Yale
University.
"I think it has extraordinary promise as a very innovative
institution. It needs to be tried out on more occasions in order
to test its feasibility, but I think the possibilities are quite
great," Dahl says. Dahl sees deliberative polling not as a
development to replace conventional public opinion polling, but
as something that may effectively augment it.
"The problem that exists now is that public opinion surveys
are representative if well done, but they don't show any kind of
reflection or deliberation. People's opinions can change when
they get the chance to think about issues or discuss them with
others.
You get a more developed or mature viewpoint. Not everyone
changes, but a number of people do, and I think the experience of
participating itself is going to send back into the community a
number of people with a higher interest in these issues who might
become more willing to participate in the process." Dahl sees
deliberative polling as a tool Congress and other organizations
might find useful during debates in supplementing election
results and conventional polling. contact: 203-432-5267
3. LOOKING AT IT FROM OTHER ANGLES
A. A TRADITIONAL POLLSTER'S VIEW
Eric Rademacher, a research associate at UC's Institute for
Policy Research and the director for Ohio Poll Public Polling,
sees the deliberative poll as very different from the kind of
work he does. One aspect he does appreciate, however, is the
emphasis on issues and the depth of information available. The
Ohio Poll seeks to determine the depth of feeling a voter may
have on an issue and whether that passion runs deeper than
loyalty to an individual candidate, so that that person becomes
an "issue voter." On deliberative polling, Rademacher says "the
common ground we all share is looking at more informed versus
less informed voters and the way opinions can change with higher
levels of information on issues and how votes can change based on
higher levels of information on issues."
With the way this year's presidential election is taking
shape, he finds that to be a particularly relevant question.
"(Fishkin) challenges you to think about how information is made
available to people," Rademacher adds. "If this were to become a
campaign full of issues, it will be interesting to watch and see
how the campaign might shift based on if one or two issues become
central." contact: 513-556-3304
B. NOT PRACTICAL ENOUGH FOR POLITICS?
While he applauds the efforts that have gone into developing
deliberative polling, David Resnick, UC associate professor and
director of graduate studies in political science, finds it
harder to see a practical role for the concept in the current
political landscape.
"It's a very interesting theoretical exercise. The idea of
'Trust the people, they are smarter than they're sometimes
portrayed' is important theoretically," Resnick says. "But in the
bigger context, this model assumes it is the people who influence
policy. It's a politically progressive model. The reality is we
have a democratic pluralism. It's a very complicated process, but
the votes cast by the public are just one part along with the
influence of many other groups that all come together to help
form American policy." Resnick also has questions about how
deliberative polling would fit into the political system, as well
as how ongoing deliberative polls would be financed. contact:
513-556-3302
4. WHAT TO EXPECT IN THE NEAR TERM
A. POLLING AS A HOT CAREER OPTION
The University of Cincinnati recently responded to increasing
demand by offering a graduate certificate program in Public
Opinion and Survey Research. The program helps prepare students
for the special demands of a career in polling, a field where
opportunities are plentiful for qualified professionals. UC is
one of six universities nationally that offers a program in this
specialized area of political science.
George Bishop, a professor of political science, directs the
program. He is the author of a landmark study showing that people
will often offer strong opinions even on unfamiliar issues.
Bishop surveyed people, asking if they agreed or disagreed that
the 1975 Public Affairs Act should be repealed. A full one-third
of respondents gave a firm opinion, despite the fact that there
never was a 1975 Public Affairs Act. contact: 513-556-5078
B. EUROPE'S READY TO DELIBERATE
Deliberative polling gets its next big rollout this fall in
Denmark. A gathering in that country is going to look at the
issue of whether Denmark should switch its currency to the Euro.
contact: James Fishkin, 512-471-5121
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