II. "Can I get some help here...?"

III. On the road to shopping

IV. Gifts for all

I. E-TAIL VS. RETAIL

A. E-TAILING GROWS...BUT STILL A SMALL SEGMENT OF THE MARKET
On-line shopping, while a growing practice, represents a small share of the retail market. UC professor of marketing Karen Machleit estimates that more than six million shoppers will spend more than half their holiday budgets in on-line shopping this year. That would be about four times as many people as last year. It's tough to say if that's enough growth to call e-retailing a success, says Machleit, who teaches e-marketing at UC. "Profitability is a key issue with these dot.coms. These on-line retailers need growth. Consumers are becoming more comfortable shopping on-line, but still, the overall amount of consumer spending on-line by comparison is quite small."
contact: 513-556-7102

B. DELIVERING THE GOODS: WHO TO TRUST
Because of insufficient stock, online companies had trouble shipping holiday gifts on time last year. Those companies will do a better job this year, predicts UC professor of marketing Karen Machleit. "...from the consumer's point of view, it's going to be safe. For the (on-line) retailers, however, it may not be so good for them. It's costing them a lot of money to do this. This could be a make-or-break for them."

Machleit, who says she personally finds shopping on-line very easy and convenient, adds that consumers can usually find clues at a retailer's web site that may indicate its reliability. If a web site promotes a BBBOnline affiliation, or is a member of a mainstream credit processing service like Verisign, that may hint at stability. Membership in an organization that works to guarantee user privacy, such as TRUSTe, would be another good sign. "That would show a site has taken the time to think out privacy policies. The on-line retailer who has done that is further along the curve of what it takes to be successful," Machleit says.
contact: 513-556-7102

C. COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS 2000: NEW READINESS
Delivery snafus of Christmas 1999 aren't being solved via high-tech by online retailers bracing for Christmas 2000, according to Rajan Kamath, UC associate professor of management who studies supplier management and the management of technology. "Anyone can take orders on line. The key is to execute and, interestingly enough, that has nothing to do with electronic commerce," Kamath says. "It has to do with good old-fashioned rust-belt stuff. How do you get a distribution network in place? How do you get a gift basket from point A to point B in a given time?" In response to demand, companies like FedEx have been adding greatly to over-the-road distribution capabilities. Says Kamath, it's "one of those acid tests of e-commerce that we've heard about."
contact: 513-556-7132

D. POST-CHRISTMAS MARKDOWNS AND SHAKEDOWNS
After Christmas is traditionally a time of big markdowns on retail items, but should Christmas 2000 prove disappointing in the e-tailing sector, it could be a time of big shakedowns in the on-line retail business. "What I think will happen is the traditional brick-and-mortar retailers, the ones with a loyal customer base and brand recognition, will step in more heavily to the on-line marketplace," predicts Karen Machleit, UC professor of marketing. Because of the disadvantages of not having brick-and-mortar stores, these "pure play retailers" who only sell online will be few are far between in the future.
contact: 513-556-7102

II. "CAN I GET SOME HELP HERE...?"

A. HOLIDAY LABOR BLUES
Retailers relying on temporary help during the holiday season will find themselves in a real pinch this year, predicts Sourushe Zandvakili, a UC professor of economics who specializes in labor issues. "It's going to be extremely hard for them this year and basically, I think customer service is going to suffer as a result," Zandvakili says. For instance, he related how he went to a McDonald's restaurant in an affluent Cincinnati suburb recently at 6:30 p.m., and found the dining room locked up. Only the drive-thru was open because of a lack of employees. Another fast food restaurant nearby has a big sign advertising a $9 per hour wage for workers.

Zandvakili predicts many companies will move towards an automated cash register system in the near future. "Eliminating the cash register position eliminates one extra job in itself," he says. "For now, since customer service may suffer, I think a lot of people will be going on-line and ordering through dot.com companies as an alternative."
contact: 513-556-2629

B. ...AND HOW TO BATTLE THEM
Chuck Matthews, a UC associate professor of management and director of the Small Business Institute, keeps a listing of ideas employers can use to win the annual battle for seasonal holiday help. Matthews advice includes:

Never wait: The holiday season comes every year. Make recruiting workers part of your overall strategic planning. "If you think ahead, you avoid missing opportunities and at the same time, integrate it with other functions of your business, like distribution, shipping, order fulfillment..."

Develop practical job descriptions and specifications: not only as a blueprint for job duties, but to help you with your planning needs.

Cross-train and recruit from within: Let employees learn other jobs within the company, as it varies their work routines and gives you new opportunities to see employees' strengths and weaknesses. That can help when you have new vacancies to fill. Matthews also says don't forget about employees as a source for new workers -- often, their friends and families can be good places to look for new workers.
contact: 513-556-7123

III. ON THE ROAD TO SHOPPING

A. CHRISTMAS 2000: RETURN OF THE STRIP MALL?
Phyllis Borcherding, coordinator of UC's product development/merchandising program, says this holiday season will be a test for the country's resurgent strip malls. Once close to extinction, strip malls have rebounded because they serve as time savers for shoppers. "You can just drive up to a freestanding Gap, park close, run in and run right back to your car. Sometimes with the megamalls, you haven't a chance of parking close to the store you want. So what will win: the time crunch or the freedom to walk around without a coat and be warm?" she said. So far, strip malls are thriving. "For instance, in Hudson, Ohio, near Cleveland, Gap plunked down a freestanding store between two boutiques, and it's doing quite well." Cincinnati's Rookwood Commons is a similar example of a thriving strip mall.
contact: 513-556-4801

B. UPTOWN VS. DOWNTOWN
Brenda Scheer, associate professor of planning who researches road systems, explained that most suburban residents can expect more crowding and grid lock around suburban malls during the holidays. "People always ask, 'Why doesn't somebody do something about this?' when it comes to crowded roads. The answer is, 'They can.'t.'"

That's because most suburban road systems are built when population is less dense in an area. Basically, not enough infrastructure is built to meet needs when an area grows with more homes and businesses. "You can widen a road, but the road system itself is destiny. Because of property rights, what you start with in terms of the basic placement and number of roads is what you've got."

Scheer added that she, like many people, chooses not to deal with the suburban overcrowding. She recommends that would-be shoppers head downtown on weekends if they want to get in and out quickly. "Downtowns have better infrastructure to move traffic more quickly. And on weekends, parking is no problem."
contact: 513-556-0211

IV. GIFTS FOR ALL

B. FUN ON THE CHEAP
UC early childhood education specialist Brenda Hieronymus says a trip to a discount store can lead to hours of fun for toddlers, particularly in the bathtub. An inexpensive wire whisk can stir up bubbles. A few drops of food coloring, floating corks, clear plastic tubing, a funnel, and empty plastic bottle can also be used to make bath time fun.
contact: 513-556-3802

C. A MOVIE TO MOVE YOU: AN AMERICAN 'CHRISTMAS CAROL'
To Michael Porte, there's no such thing as too much of "It's a Wonderful Life." Porte, UC communication professor and film expert, deems it the American equivalent to Charles Dickens' "A Christmas Carol." "It's the ultimate story of the American life. Dickens' 'A Christmas Carol' is basically British, but 'It's a Wonderful Life' is true American. It's a great classic and deserves to be seen every Christmas," he says. "We always play it in our family every year. We know Lionel Barrymore's [Mr. Potter's] lines by heart."

Why do so many viewers find this corny movie so appealing? "It's interesting that the movie depicts angelic intervention before TV and the theater discovered angels. It has the element of fantasy that an angel is reaching out to help Everyman...It depicts the standard conflict of being torn by duty and pleasure, and that is very appealing."
contact: 513-556-4473

D. OR GO FOR THE FRENCH FLAIR
Two recent novels that are set in France get the nod from UC assistant professor James Schiff, a fiction reviewer, as great holiday gifts for this season. He recommends Adam Gopnik's "Paris to the Moon," which he terms "a delightful and elegant volume about French culture, cuisine, haute couture, politics and sports, written by a New Yorker columnist who spent five years living in Paris with his wife and son." He also recommends James Welch's latest novel, "The Heartsong of Charging Elk," which tells the story of a 19th century Sioux Indian who toured France with Buffalo Bill's Wild West Show and inadvertently gets left behind in Marseilles.
contact: 513-871-8894

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