Advanced Planning Students Research Region's Future
Date: May 30, 2001
Story by: Mary Bridget Reilly
Phone: (513) 556-1824
Images courtesy of UC planning students
Archive: Research News
If predictions by graduate students at the University of Cincinnati come true, the region's future is one of increasing ethnic and economic division.
For close to six months now, 27 graduate students in planning have been crunching the numbers, analyzing figures from the past 40 years (1960-2000) pertaining to growth in Cincinnati and the surrounding region. They've looked at changes in terms of land use, the economy, transportation, infrastructure, the environment and population. Their goal: to use past trends to predict what and where the 13-county region will be in the year 2020.
 The students will present their final analysis from 10-11 a.m. Saturday, June 2, in the main auditorium of the Union Institute, 440 E. McMillan Ave. Sponsoring their efforts is the group Citizens for Civic Renewal (CCR) and the Stephen H. Wilder Foundation.
CCR Coordinator Joshua Whitehead said the real-world student project is invaluable for the region, "No planner likes to make specific predictions like this because of the controversy, but students can do this. It gets people thinking about different options."
Led by Carla Chifos, assistant professor of planning; Brenda Scheer, associate professor of planning; and Michael Romanos, professor of planning, the students predict:
 Populaton losses: Hamilton County currently has about 900,000 residents. That number will decline by about 3 percent by the year 2020, with residents moving out to surrounding counties. The City of Cincinnati will experience a much greater population loss of about 35 percent from its current population of about 331,285.
Changing racial demographics: African American will represent a disproportionate share of city residents. Currently, 23 percent of Hamilton County residents are African American. In 2020, that number will stand at 28 percent. Currently, the city is 43 percent African American, but in 2020, the UC students predict the city's population will be 66 percent African American.
Increasing income disparity: In year 2000 dollars, median household income for a city resident in 2020 will be close to $21,000 dollars, well below the expected poverty line for a family of four. The medium household income for residents in the 13 counties of the region will be between $40,000-$80,000 (in year 2000 dollars). Currently, the median household income for a city resident is close to $28,000 while the median household income for a resident of one of the counties in the region is close to $44,000.
 Less open space: The rate of land use will continue to rise, exceeding population growth. For instance, in 1955, the region used 11 percent of available land for residential and economic development, leaving 89 percent open. Now, that ratio stands at 37 percent developed land, and 63 percent open space. By 2020, 59 percent of the region's land will be developed for homes and businesses while 41 percent will be open space.
Employment trends: In terms of employment, the highest number of jobs per capita will remain in Hamilton County. The major employers will not move out, or if they do, they will remain just at the edge of Hamilton County.
In addition to studying current trends to predict future growth, the students are making proposals to guide the region into more constructive growth patterns. These include:
 An Urban Service Boundary which would encompass most of Hamilton County as well as portions of Boone, Kenton, Clermont and Butler counties: No municipally supported residential or economic infrastructure development would be supported beyond the boundary. Developers wanting to build beyond the boundary would need to fully fund infrastructure, roadways, etc. Importantly, the entire region would share in the tax revenue generated within the boundary. "You'd get development, or you'd get money," said Scheer.
A Multiple Urban Centers plan: Eleven economic/residential/service clusters would be encouraged in the City of Hamilton, Middletown, Mason, Batavia, downtown Cincinnati, Harrison, Sharonville, the Beechmont Avenue corridor, Walton, Williamstown and Florence.
 Compact City: Eighty-five percent of projected growth would fit within the Cincinnati city limits and the urbanized areas of Northern Kentucky while the remaining 15 percent would be dispersed throughout the region. This plan would only result in densities slightly heavier than the today's Clifton neighborhood. "We would still have single-family, detached housing with yards. But we'd also have good schools, and it would bring the ration of African Americans and whites down to a reasonable 2 to 1 ratio rather than the 8 to 1 ratio as it now stands in the region," said student Melissa McVay.
After their presentation, the students and UC faculty will launch a Web page and produce a CD-ROM detailing the extensive data they have collected as well as their projections. The CD will be made available, at cost, to the public.
One buyer will be Kevin Costello, executive director, Boone County Planning Commission. He's visited the students at work and acknowledged the quality of their work. "There's very little information available for all 13 counties so putting it in a usable form is a tremendous contribution. They've done a thorough job of compiling the information on everything from the environment to population. I applaud what they've done...And I've found that students usually give a good indication of where the area stands and
where we're heading when I've done these projects on the high school level."
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