Jan. 3, 1999
Contact: Mary Bridget Reilly
513-556-1824
mary-bridget.reilly@uc.edu

UNIVERSITY OF CINCINNATI FACULTY PEER INTO THE FUTURE

Cincinnati -- While political pundits across the country are busy predicting the future of the Clinton presidency and the impeachment proceedings, University of Cincinnati faculty have been peering further into the future. Here is a Top Ten list of their predictions into the next decade and farther into the coming millennium.

TERRORISTS TO AIM FOR A BIGGER BANG - The day of the high-yield, high-profile terrorist is here, according to terrorism expert Edward Bridgeman who accurately forecasted, prior to the 1990s, the emergence of smaller, hard-core groups employing high-tech methods to create bigger incidents within the U.S., as happened in Oklahoma City. Domestic terrorism by homegrown, right-wing paramilitary groups will continue while trans-national groups like the bin Laden organization will make terrorism in the U.S. a priority. It's likely such groups will target more than government buildings, aiming to hit vulnerable infrastructure targets like transportation hubs and public gathering places. Overall, we'll see fewer incidents due, in part, to significant progress against new-wave terrorism and greater inter-agency and inter-governmental cooperation. However, we'll see more casualties because of the potency of explosive, biological and chemical weapons, said Bridgeman, coordinator of the Criminal Justice Program at UC's Clermont College.

WE'LL TALK TO OUR VCRs - Home products like VCRs, cameras, camcorders, televisions and even coffeemakers will be voice- activated and programmed to understand a variety of languages, according to nationally known product design consultant Brad Hammond, associate professor in UC's top-ranked industrial design program. Not that your VCR, CDs or even DVDs (digital video disks) will be around for long. Movies and music will be available on a computer chip that is programmable so the consumer can place himself within a favorite movie or sing with a favorite group.

SOMEONE, OR RATHER, SOME THING, WILL BE WATCHING - Electronic control and monitoring devices will increasingly penetrate both living and working environments, according to Wolf Preiser, professor of architecture. Some, like monitored "kiddie corners" already in place at local groceries, are service improvements. Others are exclusionary, including the blocking of access to information by encryption devices or control devices to electronically screen people for access to businesses and residential areas. Invasion of privacy, such as employer "electronic mail eavesdropping" will become more of a problem.

CATCHING UP TO DOUBLE-INCOME FAMILIES - Dual-earning families are now the norm for families with children, and companies will better adjust to this norm in the first decade of the 21st century, said sociologist David Maume, director of the Kunz Center for the Study of Work and Family at UC. More companies will offer on-site child care, flexible working hours and other family-friendly policies and benefits, with the largest companies leading the way. Roughly 60 percent of families with children are dual-income, yet according to a recent survey of Ohio's working families by the Kunz Center, only one in ten working parents report having on-site daycare at work or child-care subsidies from their employer.

GET READY TO HITCH A RIDE - We'll run out of oil between 2030 and 2050, and no one - not the government, not the auto manufacturers, not the oil companies - is doing a thing, according to Ohio Emininent Scholar David Gosling. Our increasingly grid-locked "car culture" will then alter radically. Light rail is an excellent alternative for the U.S. because the electric power it uses derives from coal, and it's estimated that the country has about 300 years' worth of coal reserves.

LABOR REVIVES - Labor unions, which have experienced gradual membership declines in recent decades, will likely show a reversal and gradual rejuvenation among blue-collar workers, predicts Howard Leftwich, professor of economics and coordinator of UC's Graduate Labor and Employment Relations Program. The global economy will not necessarily bring international mergers of unions but will lead to cross-border cooperation among unions.

MORE HOOKED ON GAMBLING - America's gambling tab will rise in the coming decade, according to Larry Anthony, program coordinator of UC's Addiction Studies Program, the only such program in Ohio and one of the few in the country. Gambling establishments have mushroomed as a way of enriching state and local coffers and providing jobs. The latest figures show a corresponding rise in the number of "problem gamblers," said Anthony, adding that with the passage of time, states and municipalities might see their economic gains offset by social costs.

LANDSCAPING TREND TO BRING HABITAT TO BACK YARD - More homeowners will spend good money to rip up the traditional suburban lawn and go rustic, according to Tom Smith, academic area coordinator of UC's Horticulture Program. Known as "naturescaping," the trend involves building earth-friendly, chemical-free lawns that mirror the natural milieu. An estimated 25 percent of gardeners are now using native plants. One caution: the wild look is an open invitation to wildlife, including deer, raccoons, birds, possums, turtles - and where they are native - coyotes and mountain lions.

CITIES TO STOP SPRAWLING - The era of ever-expanding suburbia outside the central city will end, predicts UC geographer Howard Stafford, an expert in urban geography, who pointed out that, until now, urban sprawl has been accelerated by major highway expansions. The 21st century will end the American era of new highway construction and therefore limit sprawl to the current beltway borders.

MORE FURNISHINGS TO DO "DOUBLE DUTY" - More beds and closet armoires will serve as desks, and the couch that folds out into a bed will regain popularity, according to James Postell, associate professor of interior design. Limited physical space and a desire for greater value at lower cost, especially among the rising numbers of single parents and single adults living alone, will drive this trend. Singles and many others in our increasingly mobile society don't want to be weighted with furniture, literally or economically, said Postell.