E-briefing
The Job Market and Spring Recruiting of College Grads

The outsized expectations of past job markets for spring grads is diminished, and the seniors quoted below seem to be aware of that. At the end of March, new claims for state unemployment insurance jumped to their highest level since 1998, suggesting that employers' appetite for workers has been somewhat sated. Still, unemployment stands at just above 4 percent.

So, new college grads aren't about to see the bottom drop out of the job market. It's just that the job market seems so, well, "schizophrenic" as one national researcher put it. One thing that national researchers, career development professionals and employers do seem to all agree on: next fall will be key. That's push time for employers who want to guarantee they have the pick of that year's college seniors. Will they be recruiting in full force or will they be cutting back? Read the tea leaves in this week's University of Cincinnati e-briefing.

Table of contents:

I. Hiring hitting the brakes?

A. Hiring by the numbers
B. A job market with a personality disorder: schizophrenia
C. Spring career fairs have less spring in their step
D. Spring is slowing because fall is "all" in campus recruiting
E. Spring malaise will turn into strong fall
F. Softening market has a silver lining: co-op stays strong

II. Campus recruiting: the employers' perspectives

A. Starting salaries still rise; signing bonuses abound
B. Recruiting 101 for employers: coming to campus is simply good business

III. Student perspectives: a paradoxical view

A. Deferring the dream job
B. Advice to classmates: tough it out and don't rule any job out
C. Even engineers feel a chill
D. Technology types shy from dot.coms
E. For liberal arts grad, job market just doesn't add up

IV. Optimism rules for the future

A. If coming fall is flat, look for spring 2002 rebound
B. Layoffs won't affect college recruiting

I. HIRING HITTING THE BRAKES?

A. HIRNG BY THE NUMBERS
Camille Luckenbaugh, employment information manager, National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE): "We were going 100 mph a year ago. Now, we're going 80 mph. It's still a good clip, and opportunity is there for grads and for employers. Just now, the employers can be a little more selective." NACE survey numbers bear her out. Last fall, employers predicted they would increase hiring by 23.4 during the 2000-2001 school year. Now, it looks like hiring will only have increased by 18.8 percent.

The numbers read a bit different in the western U.S. where 60 percent of companies are scaling back on hiring compared to what they projected in the fall. They had predicted an increase in hiring by 33.6 percent for 2000-2001, but now western employers are saying they'll only increase hiring by 21.6 percent.
Contact: 800-544-5272, ext. 111
Web site: http://www.naceweb.org/

B. A JOB MARKET WITH A PERSONALITY DISORDER: SCHIZOPHRENIA
Camille Luckenbaugh, employment information manager for the National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE), says the recruiting market right now seems almost schizophrenic. "It's split right now the middle. Our Job Outlook 2001 update survey released in March that 47.5 percent of employers don't anticipate any changes in their hiring needs relative to what they predicted last fall. On the other hand, 45.8 percent have decreased their hiring expectations from what they predicted last fall. Only 6.5 percent of employers believe they'll need to hire more help than they predicted last fall."

Anecdotal information mirrors the split. In tracking a handful of consulting firms, Luckenbaugh found six firms were cutting back while five said they were making no change in hiring or were increasing hiring. Survey information reveals that the competition for college grads is still quite strong. On the other hand, Luckenbaugh has received a couple of phone calls from colleges where students have had job offers rescinded.
Contact: 800-544-5272, ext. 111
Web site: http://www.naceweb.org/

C. SPRING CAREER FAIRS HAVE LESS SPRING IN THEIR STEP
Katrina Jordan, associate director of UC's Career Development Center, reports that employer recruiting on campus is down about 20 percent over last spring. "There's a definite change in recruiting. Our regular spring career fair had about half the number of employers as last year, about 62 this year as compared with about 105 last year. Students are affected when, for instance, companies in the automotive industry are freezing hiring in some technical areas . Despite the downturn in some industries, others are holding their own and have continued to actively recruit graduates such as in the education field."
Contact: 513-556-0318

D. SPRING IS SLOWING BECAUSE FALL IS "ALL" IN CAMPUS RECRUITING
Tim Luzader, director or Purdue University's Center for Career Opportunities, says he has seen some softening in the recruitment of new graduates this spring. Some of this reflects the economic downturn while some, paradoxically, reflects the strong job market of recent years. Due to the overall strength of the job market for new grads in past years, many employers place much greater emphasis on fall recruitment. They simply couldn't wait till spring.
Contact: 765-494-3981

E. SPRING MALAISE WILL TURN INTO STRONG FALL
C. Randall Powell, director of placement at Indiana University's Kelley School of Business, said that last fall saw a record number of recruiters coming to the school, but spring seems to be a different story. "In the fall, every room was filled every day with recruiters. The number of companies coming this spring has dropped significantly compared to last spring." That may be because many companies made their hiring offers earlier in the year. He has only heard of a couple of companies withdrawing job offers this spring, but they then assisted students with placement service elsewhere. A few companies are delaying starting dates for new hires, but he is confident recruiting will be strong this fall. "From the number of companies that are booking for the fall, we'll have a full house. There may be some companies who will be conducting fewer interviews, but overall, it's very positive."
Contact: 812-855-5317

F. SOFTENING MARKET HAS A SILVER LINING: CO-OP STAYS STRONG
Richard Abel, head, UC's College of Applied Science professional practice department, said, "Employer recruiting is slowing down here, but it's hard to tell how much it's slowing down...Our fall quarter recruiting was way, way up." Certain majors, like construction management, are still strong. Others, like chemical technology and computer science are more affected by the economic slowdown. A good sign that employers see light at the end of the tunnel: demand for cooperative education students remains steady. (Cooperative education, which was founded worldwide at UC in 1906, alternates academic quarters with paid, professional work experience.)
Contact: 513-556-6571

II. CAMPUS RECRUITING: THE EMPLOYER'S PERSPECTIVE

A. STARTING SALARIES RISE; SIGNING BONUSES ABOUND
Camille Luckenbaugh, employment information manager, National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE), says starting salary offers for those in engineering disciplines have risen about 10 percent higher than starting salaries last year. Other majors are also seeing higher starting salaries: computer science grads have jumped by 8 percent, psychology and political science grads have also risen by 8 percent, accounting by 5 percent, and English grads by 3 percent. And signing bonuses can still be expected in certain fields. Last year, 64.7 percent of employers offered signing bonuses to grads while this year, 68.2 percent will.
Contact: 800-544-5272, ext. 111
Web site: http://www.naceweb.org/

B. RECRUITING 101: COMING TO CAMPUS IS SIMPLY GOOD BUSINESS
Recruiter Ryan Beck, UC campus coordinator for General Electric, explained that GE recruits from 36 colleges and universities across the country and makes its big recruiting push during fall. He reports that GE recruiting over the past two autumns has remained steady, and he anticipates that this fall's recruiting will stay the course. Despite any softening in the economy, Beck claims that eliminating campus recruiting tends to be bad for businesses over the long haul. "While, at times, there may be some reduction in the number of hires recruited, it's not in an employer's best interest to stop recruiting. Even with a downturn in the economy, businesses like ours still recruit because it's important to continually infuse new talent into an organization. New ideas and perspective keep a business strong."
Contact: 513-243-4697

III. STUDENT PERSPECTIVES: A PARADOXICAL VIEW

A. DEFERRING THE DREAM JOB
Computer science engineering major Janice Pierce, 37, of Cincinnati, graduated at the end of winter quarter and has yet to find her ideal job in Web development. "I'm not worried about finding a job. I'll get a job, but what I want which is to work in Web development. I had hoped to meet with Software Architects at UC's April career fair; however, they didn't show. I've since found out they have a hiring freeze. I can hold out a few more weeks before I have to take a job [that's not my ideal.]" She added that the slowing economy does have her "scared," especially after the civil unrest in Cincinnati as she expects that the local economy will be negatively affected. It particularly affects Pierce and other non-traditional aged students who can't relocate because of family obligations.

B. ADVICE TO CLASSMATES: TOUGH IT OUT, DON'T RULE ANY JOB OUT
Marketing senior Andrew Pentenburg, 23, of Dayton, Ohio, is actually less worried now about finding a job than he was during winter quarter. He's had three interviews already this quarter and has three more lined up, two of which are second interviews. He admits that others in his marketing classes are more nervous about finding jobs than has been the case in years past. "In the long run, it'll be fine. There's no great shortage of sales and marketing positions. You may not get your dream position right away. You might have to do sales. I'm comfortable with that as I've worked retail camera sales for nearly six years. Others in my marketing classes don't want to work sales no matter what; and so, they're more nervous."

C. EVEN ENGINEERS FEEL A CHILL
Electrical engineering senior Philbert Abellera, 22, of Cincinnati, reports that his electrical engineering and computer science engineering classmates don't have the offers pouring in as they did last year. "We have a general posting where all the students place offers they've received, the type of job and the salary and whether they've accepted the position. It's to help other students who are interviewing so that we know what offers others are receiving, or if the student didn't accept an offer, another student could pursue it. There's a lot fewer than a year ago. The listings have been sparse."

Until January, Abellera was nervous about finding a position. One employer seemed to be "stringing me along," he said. Another employer, for whom he had co-opped three times, didn't know about the financing to hire him. However, that second employer, Cincinnati Machine, was able to offer Abellera a position, and he is currently working there part-time and will work there full-time after graduation. "I was nervous in January. I heard from my classmates that people weren't getting offers. In the fall and winter, so many of us were interviewing and trying to find a position. It seems better now that technology needs and companies are slowly regrowing."

D. TECHNOLOGY TYPES SHY FROM DOT.COMS
Andrea Dine, assistant director, UC's Career Development Center: "There's a definite change in what technology jobs students are seeking. They are wary of the dot.coms and are looking to go to more established firms."
Contact: 513-556-0315

E. FOR LIBERAL ARTS GRAD, JOB MARKET JUST DOESN'T ADD UP
For economics senior Dave DiPilla, 23, of Cincinnati, the current job market just isn't adding up. He has been seeking an entry-level position in finances since fall and has had six interviews since that time. DiPilla knows that lack of experience - he's had one internship with a discount brokerage firm - is part of the challenge. In addition, up till now, he hasn't considered sales positions. He also suspects the softening economy is also part of the problem. "I've asked other [liberal arts] seniors if they have jobs lined up, and most have said, 'no.' I'm not the only one. I'm at my wit's end. It's been frustrating," he said, emphasizing again, "It's been very, very frustrating."

IV. OPTIMISM RULES THE FUTURE

A. IF FALL IS FLAT, LOOK FOR SPRING REBOUND IN 2002
Tim Luzader, director of Purdue University's Center for Career Opportunities, says that because of economic uncertainty, some employers coming to campus next fall will likely interview fewer students. "...employers may conduct three to four schedules of interviews instead of ten or 12..."

He predicts that if the economic downturn continues, employers will limit their campus recruiting to key schools. Luzader, however, is optimistic about the economy overall. "I think...the economic slowdown is temporary. If recruiting activity is flat this fall, I anticipate that a rebound will take place in time for spring 2002 recruitment."
Contact: 765-494-3981

B. LAYOFFS WON'T AFFECT COLLEGE RECRUITING
C. Randall Powell, director of placement at Indiana University's Kelley School of Business, Indiana University, said layoffs occurring in the general economy don't usually affect college graduates, he explained. "In my 30 years in the business, I've noted that companies lay off those without skills. At the same time, they're hiring those who have the skills they need, namely college graduates."
Contact: 812-855-5317

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