E-briefing on Campaign 2000
Date: Sept. 29, 2000
Contact: Chris Curran
Assistant Director, UC Public Relations
Phone: (513) 556-1806
October promises to bring us one of the tightest, hottest
final months of campaigning in recent presidential politics. With
Ohio in the "heart of it all," this week's University of Cincinnati e-briefing offers reports and insight from the front lines of Campaign 2000.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
I. Battleground Ohio
A. Ohio under the microscope
Climate on campus
II. Shaping opinions
A. Rating the debates
B. A psychologist's view of the debates
C. The running mates
D. Opinions on the 'Net
III. Communication in Campaign 2000
A. Front-lawn politics
B. A trend to keep an eye on
IV. Prospering with the economy
A. It's still the economy, stupid
B. Surplus can lead to excess
V. More issues from the trail
A. Turning up the volume on environmental conversation
B. Long live the estate tax
C. China -- the stealth issue
D. Handle China with care
E. One educator's opinion
VI. Historically speaking
A. Ohio's importance lasts a century
B. Why the electoral college exists
C. A changing view of leadership
I. BATTLEGROUND OHIO
A. OHIO UNDER THE MICROSCOPE
Campaigning in Ohio is coming down to some very fine lines for
the presidential candidates. The most recent Ohio Poll showed
George W. Bush with a 4-point edge over Al Gore in Ohio, putting
the state very much up for grabs. "Success in Ohio for either
Gore or Bush really comes down to an ability to attract voters
across a wide range of issues, as opposed to any one issue,"
explains Eric Rademacher, director of public polling for UC's
Ohio Poll. "It's a very difficult task." Rademacher says Ohio is
always a difficult state to run in because of the diversity of
its population and the large number of media markets in the
state. He expects to continue to see Gore visiting the Republican
stronghold of southwest Ohio and Bush in the Democratic
stronghold of northeast Ohio, both battling "for independents and
potential switchers."
Contact: Eric Rademacher, (513) 556-3304
B. CLIMATE ON CAMPUS
Randy O'Hara, acting president of the University of Cincinnati
Campus Republicans, says his group is trying improve voter
turnout and "selling our candidate." The organization is
distributing promotional literature across campus and at events
such as football games. O'Hara, a senior UC political science
major, says President Clinton won the young vote in the last
election by appealing to younger audiences, making stops on late
night talk shows and MTV. "In that sense, we're relying on our
candidate to be as charismatic as Clinton was in that campaign,"
says O'Hara. Somewhat surprisingly, O'Hara also says Social
Security is a hot issue for youth. "Young people see that Social
Security will not exist for us unless something changes now."
Contact: Randy O'Hara (513) 559-0717, e-mail O'Hara
II. SHAPING OPINIONS
A. RATING THE DEBATES
With the presidential race in a near dead-heat heading into
October, the presidential debates this year could prove more
important than any in recent memory. Kim Downing, director of
Research Services for UC's Ohio Poll and an expert in political
communication, says debates can be a key for the undecided voter.
"Debates provide the opportunity to see both candidates together
which is most useful to undecided voters. It's the one time to
hear the candidate not in a sound bite or packaged in an
advertising campaign. That could be very significant this year.
It could come down to how they look, sound, respond to questions
and to each other." Downing will be studying the debates as well,
looking to see which candidate gains an edge by virtue of the
differing formats including the informal "table talk" debate Oct.
11.
Contact: Kim Downing, (513) 556-5028
B. A PSYCHOLOGIST'S VIEW OF THE DEBATES
Tony Grasha, UC Distinguished Teaching Professor in psychology
and an expert in performing under stress, says he doesn't expect
to see any major mistakes by the candidates. Although reporters
and political cartoonists have pounced on several misstatements
by George W. Bush, Grasha says the pre-debate preparation will
pay off for both candidates. "Notice how candidates in those
debates often answer the question in a way that you wonder what
the original questions was anyway. In effect, they answer with a
well-rehearsed response and thus are less likely to slip." Grasha
also believes the most memorable quotes we'll hear in the debates
have been carefully prepared as well. "Live is a misnomer. Just
like Jay Leno being handed 'one-liners' in advance of the show,
both candidates will have a few catchy phrases in their hip
pocket just in case."
Contact: Tony Grasha, (513) 556-5543
C. THE RUNNING MATES
Bob Miller, who is teaching "Modern American Presidents: From FDR
to the Present" thinks a key point in this campaign has been the
selection of running mates. "The most interesting thing about the
election so far has been the attention on the running mates," says Miller. "I think Lieberman is a little more obvious in terms of historical importance. It's the first time someone of the Jewish faith has made it on the ticket. In a nuts and bolts way, the choice has inoculated Gore from the expected fallout from the Clinton administration. Lieberman has really secured support among senior citizens and among voters who were on the fence about the character issue from the Clinton administration. Conversely, when the Republicans had their convention and named Cheney as the running mate, I think George W. Bush was expecting a more positive response. I think the idea was to tap into the Gulf war, his father's war, and remind Americans of the country's strength at that time, but it's backfired with questions about Cheney's business dealings."
Contact: Bob Miller, (513) 556-9128 or e-mail Miller
C. OPINIONS ON THE 'NET
Polling in future presidential elections will likely migrate to
the Internet, according to George Bishop, UC professor of political science and director of UC's Internet Public Opinion Laboratory (I-POL). "Down the road, when an even higher percentage of households have access to the Internet, this will be the cost-effective way to do everything (in polling)," predicts Bishop, comparing the impact to the advent of telephone polling technology in the 1970s. I-POL, a project of UC's Center for the Study of Democratic Citizenship, is putting its first experimental poll online -- a 25-question survey about the 2000 Presidential election. Results will be compared with traditional polling techniques.
Web site
Contact: George Bishop, (513) 556-5078
3. COMMUNICATION IN CAMPAIGN 2000
A. FRONT-LAWN POLITICS
You pull out of your driveway, and there they are. Those yard signs. They're probably here to stay, says Judith Trent, University of Cincinnati political communication researcher. While bumper stickers and pins have become scarcer in presidential elections, the yard sign still stands tall. Their use pre-dates electronic forms of communication, yet they survive. "Though they are not part of cyberdemocracy, they nonetheless -- like the Internet or television spots -- serve as one of the candidate's personal image advertising tools. They are more in-your-face than the Internet or television. They are almost like personal, neighborhood reminders of people's names," she says. "But as the race increases in level from local, state to national, they take on lesser importance."
Contact: Judith Trent, (513) 523-4484
B. A TREND TO KEEP AN EYE ON
Michael Margolis, a UC professor of political science, co-authored a book published in February called Politics as Usual: The Cyberspace 'Revolution,' which found that the Internet has had little real impact on political campaigning. Margolis says that trend continues into the current presidential campaign. One significant thing he has noticed on the Web, however, is how the presidential campaigns continue to act as self-contained entities and distance themselves from their parties. "The Internet is serving the personal campaign organizations separately from the parties, reinforcing the notion of the presidential campaigns running independently of their party,"
Margolis says the official party Web sites have direct links to
the presidential campaign sites prominently displayed, but the
campaign Web sites do not reciprocate. "If the links are there,
they are not easily found. Instead, prominent links are reserved
for volunteering for the campaign or donating money."
Contact: Mike Margolis, (513) 556-3310
IV. PROSPERING WITH THE ECONOMY
A. IT'S STILL THE ECONOMY, STUPID
Bill Clinton's run to the presidency in 1992 was supported by the
now-famous catch phrase, "It's the economy, stupid." Even though
many have discounted the economy as a strong issue for voters in
2000, a prominent voice in the field says don't be surprised if
it becomes a deciding factor on Election Day, 2000. "In 1992,
Americans subjectively felt very depressed about the economy and
its direction," says Thomas Mann, W. Averell Harriman Senior Fellow in American Government at the Brookings Institution. "Now, they're very optimistic. Consumer confidence is near an all-time high, optimism about the direction the country is moving is near an all-time high." But the economy could still play a major role in this election. "Even though it's not showing up yet, it's there as a backdrop and it tends to be a deciding factor for late-deciding voters if history is any guide." Mann will offer his thoughts on "The Economy and the 2000 Elections" in Cincinnati on Oct. 19, when he speaks at UC as part of the James C. Kautz Speakers Program in Political Economy.
Calendar information: The lecture will be at 5:30 p.m. in Room
112 Lindner Hall.
Contact: Thomas Mann, (202) 797-6000
B. SURPLUS CAN LEAD TO EXCESS
Charles Berry, UC professor of economics, believes both
presidential candidates are in far too big of a hurry to spend
the budget surplus. "The federal government is running a surplus,
and politicians are busting their butts to find ways to spend it
rather than returning the money to the people who earned it,"
Berry says. For instance, Berry says both candidates are proposing to put more money into schools for teachers to reduce class sizes, when in fact, most schools have no classroom space for new teachers. He is also concerned about what could happen if the economy slows and the surplus disappears. As for arguments that the surplus should be used for to pay off the national debt, "the deficit as percentage of income is falling," Berry says. "When you have that kind of situation, I don't consider our deficit to be much of a problem."
Contact: Charles Berry, (513) 556-2624
V. MORE ISSUES FROM THE TRAIL
A. TURNING UP THE VOLUME ON ENVIRONMENTAL CONVERSATION
Al Gore is closely identified with environmental issues, but
would he push too hard in that direction if he became president?
"We would see stronger environmental leadership with Gore, but
his ability to do anything radical would be greatly constrained
by Congress," says UC professor of economics Haynes Goddard, an
expert on environmental issues and public policy. For example,
just try replacing or restricting the use of internal combustion
engines. "We've got hybrid vehicles already in production and
other technologies available with lower (environmental) impacts,"
Goddard says. "The problems are well-known in the scientific
community, but getting politicians talking about them is tough,"
Goddard says.
Contact: Haynes Goddard, (513) 556-2621
B. LONG LIVE THE ESTATE TAX
Paul Caron, UC associate dean for faculty research and professor
of law, disagrees with politicians who favor abolishing the estate tax. Caron thinks criticisms are overstated and supports the intent of the tax as a democratic tool to prevent the pooling of wealth in family dynasties. Caron says that only 37 percent of the 400 wealthiest individuals in 1999 inherited a significant fortune, compared to a 61 percent figure in 1984. The estate tax also curbs dynastic wealth by encouraging bequests to charitable
organizations ($14 billion in 1997). "The issue of tax cuts is...
one of the fault lines in the 2000 Presidential election," Caron
says. "Whichever side wins that debate, the estate tax should not
be the focus of those tax cuts."
Contact: Paul Caron, 513-556-0100
C. CHINA -- THE STEALTH ISSUE
Recent developments have taken one of the more interesting issues
the presidential candidates had to deal with -- relations with China -- virtually out of play. "From a year ago, when China seemed to be quite contentious with issues like Chinese spying, concerns over Taiwan, concerns over U.S. missile defense proposals and debates over Most Favored Nation trading status, almost all of those issues have been muted as we go into the stretch run of this campaign," says Richard Harknett, a UC associate professor of political science who specializes in international relations. Harknett considers that ironic, given that dealing with China appears to be America's greatest foreign policy challenge for the next decade. "But you have a challenger who doesn't have it as his strength and a vice president coming from an administration whose foreign policy record isn't that
good. So you've got two guys who don't want to bring it up and a
public that doesn't want to hear about it."
Contact: Richard Harknett, (513) 556-3314
D. HANDLE CHINA WITH CARE
In the long run, the next president will never be able to put China too far out of mind. Tom Moore, a UC assistant professor of political science who studies China, says "the "Top Ten" list of challenges for the next president in dealing with China will be "Taiwan, Taiwan, Taiwan.......Taiwan." Moore noted that China-Taiwan relations have deteriorated substantially in recent years and will constitute an increasingly delicate matter for the next U.S. president. "Beyond the Taiwan issue, a second likely irritant will be U.S. plans to develop and deploy national missile defense and/or theater missile defense," says Moore. "The latter, in particular, involves strengthening the U.S.-Japan strategic alliance in East Asia and raises sensitive questions about whether Taiwan would be included in such an effort. All of this infuriates China, somewhat legitimately."
Contact: Tom Moore, (513) 556-3376
E. ONE EDUCATOR'S OPINION
Both presidential campaigns are emphasizing the importance of
education, but only Al Gore can claim the endorsements of the National Education Association and the American Federation of Teachers. Lawrence J. Johnson, dean of UC's College of Education,
offers his own perspective on why that happened: "When you look at Bush's policy...when you peel the first layer of the onion, it becomes pretty clear he does not see public education as something that needs to be supported. Bush focuses on a more punitive approach toward education--getting kids out of public schools and pushing for vouchers. It's an attitude that the educational system is the problem, not the solution. Gore's approach is different. While he recognizes that the system needs reform and accountability, he's looking for solutions to support public education and build higher quality. In short, with proper reforms, he sees education as a potential solution. People in the educational system do not see Bush as a supporter, but rather as someone who's going to dismantle the system. While both candidates are saying we need to put a greater emphasis on early childhood education and on providing greater access to a college education, Gore's approach is much more proactive and in my opinion, has a greater chance for success."
Contact: Lawrence J. Johnson (513) 556-2338
VI. HISTORICALLY SPEAKING
A. OHIO'S IMPORTANCE LASTS A CENTURY
Ohio is considered a bellwether state in presidential elections -
- a fact backed up by history. In the last 100 years, Ohio has
voted for the winner in 23 of 25 presidential elections. Eric
Rademacher, director of public polling for UC's Ohio Poll, says
"While the state has voted slightly more Republican than the rest
of the nation in presidential elections, it otherwise demographically and economically very much models the rest of the country." No Republican presidential candidate in the last century has won the White House without winning Ohio, and only two Democrats were able to do it -- Roosevelt in 1944 and Kennedy in 1960.
Contact: Eric Rademacher, (513) 556-3304
B. WHY THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE EXISTS
It's easy to forget that the popular vote doesn't put a president
in office; the electoral college does. The electoral college has
been functioning since 1789 and "was designed to weaken the
influence of ordinary voting Americans -- period," says John K.
Alexander, University of Cincinnati historian and an expert on
revolutionary America. "It was a way to take direct electoral
power out of the hands of the people." Although it's not quite
that way anymore, it can still skew the results. In 1876,
Rutherford B. Hayes became president despite actually receiving
fewer popular votes than his opponent (Samuel J. Tilden). The
vote was 4,033,950 to 4,284,757. Why don't we just get rid of the
electoral college? Says Alexander: "If it regularly fouled up the
system, I think it would have been junked by now. And if you had
two elections in a row where the loser was elected president, I
can almost guarantee the system would be changed."
Contact: John K. Alexander, 513-861-7462
C. A CHANGING VIEW OF LEADERSHIP
Pundits are telling us both candidates are underwhelming. Is there a crisis of leadership when it comes to the choice of Al Gore or George W. Bush? Norman Thomas, University of Cincinnati Taft Professor Emeritus of political science and an expert on presidential politics says there's no reason to worry. "The country will be in good hands whether Bush or Gore is elected. What's different now is our political leaders are under much more scrutiny than they have ever been in history. That makes it look as if our leaders are failing or lacking in moral fiber. I am in no way convinced that our leaders today are morally deficient compared to the leaders of the past." Thomas said the more important issue is how to maintain confidence in our leaders at a time when their private lives are subjected to such close examination.
Contact: Norman Thomas, 513-821-8590
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