UC researcher projects surge of COVID-19 cases in urban Ohio over next month

UC researchers released new projections through May 10 that show counties including and adjacent to large airports will see a surge in COVID-19 infections.

Diego Cuadros, assistant professor of geography in UC’s College of Arts and Sciences, released a new map of infection risk for Ohio’s 88 counties that shows the wide disparity between urban and rural areas. People living in many rural counties, particularly in southern Ohio, face as much as four times less risk of infection as those in larger cities and their suburbs.

“It’s not a single national epidemic. We’re seeing outbreaks,” Cuadros said.

Even so, the UC projections suggest that about half of Ohio’s 88 counties will see 200 or more infections by May 10. And a dozen counties in Ohio will see more than 1,000 cases each by May 10, according to UC projections.

“Usually when you do modeling you want to be very conservative,” Cuadros said.

Furthermore, social distancing measures enacted around the world have, indeed, significantly reduce the rate of growth of coronavirus, according to the UC analysis.

The analysis found that testing, closures, stay-at-home orders and other social-distancing measures cut the expected growth rate of the epidemic in places like Italy, Iceland and South Korea, Cuadros said.

“It shows that intervention is working. Social distancing is working,” he said.

“This virus is spreading so fast that just a few days make a big difference in numbers,” Cuadros said. “That’s why it’s been so difficult to contain the virus. It spreads superfast.”

Cuadros examined the expected rate of infection compared to the actual rate of infection with intervention measures. Countries have responded to the crisis in varying ways and with varying degrees of success to “flatten the curve” with measures designed to reduce the rate of infection.

South Korea announced its first case of coronavirus on Jan. 20, the same day a 35-year-old Washington State man was diagnosed in the United States after returning from an overseas visit to family. That patient presented mild symptoms, coughing and fever, before developing pneumonia but ultimately recovering, according to The New England Journal of Medicine.

Around the world, the rate of growth has differed wildly. UC’s analysis found that intervention methods curbed the growth rate by 17% in Belgium, 19% in France, 26% in Iceland, 48% in Italy, 56% in Malaysia and 71% in South Korea.

Cuadros and his research partners have also been working 12-hour days compiling new data and running projections for Ohio through the same predictive models they used to examine the state’s fatal opioid epidemic.

“We don’t have months. Small changes can produce big impacts. So that’s why we need to share this information quickly,” he said.

Cuadros is working with Cincinnati Children’s Hospital, the UC Department of Mathematics and the UC College of Pharmacy.

“As part of this study, Dr. Cuadros has taken the methodology we used to map the spread of the opioid crisis in Ohio and applied it to COVID-19,” UC College of Pharmacy Dean Neil MacKinnon said.

“We also are linking the spread of the outbreak to the availability of health care resources such as hospital and ICU beds,” MacKinnon said. “We believe this research will provide practical and timely information for Dr. Amy Acton and her team at the Ohio Department of Health.”

UC's Health Geography and Disease Modeling Lab examined the anticipated growth rates of coronavirus compared to the actual rates after intervention measures. Some countries were able to reduce the rate of infection far more than other countries:

Country                    Reduction in Growth Rate

• Austria                -45% (Locked down March 16)
• Belgium               -17% (Locked down March 18)
• Estonia                -77% (Locked down March 27)
• Finland                -24% (Locked down March 25)
• France                 -19% (Locked down March 17)
• Iceland                -50% (Banned public events March 24)
• Italy                      -48% (Locked down March 11)
• Japan                    -22% (Banned public events Feb. 26)
• Malaysia                -56% (Locked down March 16)
• South Africa           -85% (Locked down March 26)
• South Korea           -71% (Banned public events Feb. 27)
• United Kingdom    -43% (Locked down March 24)

Source: UC Health Geography and Disease Modeling Lab

Featured image at top: Campus cafes and classrooms alike are empty this month as UC responds to the COVID-19 crisis. Photo/Matt Green/MasseyGreenAVP for UC

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