AP: America's bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump
UC political scientist David Niven shares commentary on 2020 election with national audience
Bellwether states and counties used to be good predictors of election outcomes. That changed with the 2020 presidential election.
For example, Ohio has been a predictor of a Republican presidential win since 1960. Should Biden be certified by the electoral college that trend has ended.
UC political scientist David Niven explains in an Associated Press article how bellwethers were born when political battle lines tended to be drawn more cleanly along economic lines; however, this election cycle the lines appeared to be drawn more around culture wars and identity.
“It speaks to an evolution in American politics,” said Niven, who teaches American politics at UC and conducts research on campaigns, political communication and death penalty policy.
Featured image at top of Vigo County history musuem, where a sign touts the county's status as an election predictor. Photo/AP
Impact Lives Here
The University of Cincinnati is leading public urban universities into a new era of innovation and impact. Our faculty, staff and students are saving lives, changing outcomes and bending the future in our city's direction. Next Lives Here.
Related Stories
Removing Barriers to Higher Education
January 8, 2026
Cincinnati media covered the rollout of the Bearcat Affordability Grant which provdes a pathway to tuition-free college for students of famlies who make less than $75,000 per year and are residents of the state of Ohio.
The biggest skin-care trends of 2026 go back to basics
January 8, 2026
The University of Cincinnati's Kelly Dobos was featured in an Allure article discussing the biggest skin-care trends of 2026.
Small business predictions for 2026
January 8, 2026
In 2026, small business leaders will likely adapt to AI and cybersecurity threats as they consider new funding sources, training strategies and realities in today’s business environment.