UC study uncovers unexpected link between police spending, housing prices
Breaking down the data by income level reveals large but opposite moves in home prices
A first-of-its-kind study on the link between police budgeting and the housing market seemed to be a dead end — showing practically no relation between the spending on law enforcement and home transaction volume and prices, just like previous studies.
But University of Cincinnati economics professor David Brasington found surprising results when he split the data between low-income and high-income communities: large, completely opposite moves in housing prices.
Brasington, PhD, published a new study called “The Effect of Increased Police Spending on House Prices and Sales Volume: A Tale of Two Types of Cities.” In it, he wrote that “the small or nonexistent link between house prices and crime found by the literature really just reflects the sum of large but opposite moves in house prices in different market segments.”
His research, published in the Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, found that voting to increase the police budget raises housing prices by about 13% in low-income communities, but lowers housing prices by at least 14% in high-income communities.
David Brasington, PhD, James C. and Caroline Kautz Chair in Political Economy and professor at Lindner College of Business, Department of Economics. Photo/University of Cincinnati.
“Nobody had split the sample between the higher- and lower-income areas,” he said. Without splitting the data, the results virtually cancel each other out. Those huge swings on opposite sides of the income range were hidden in plain sight, he said, even as economic theoretical models supported the existence of an effect of police spending on housing.
“Just intuitively, you’d think that police services would make a difference in house prices. And it just wasn’t there in the data,” he added, “until you split the sample.”
In his study, Brasington analyzed communities across Ohio by looking into decades of votes on taxes to increase police funding by an average of 15%. He then compares that to Ohio’s housing data from 1995 to 2018.
At the onset of his research, Brasington’s plan was to compare police tax renewals and home sale volumes. Overall, the data showed little change in volume and prices after a police funding levy. Even after dividing his sample by income, he says that there is seemingly no link between police spending and the quantity of houses sold in a community. But the decrease in home prices for high-income communities and increase in home prices in low-income communities remained consistent for at least five years following the police budget vote.
Brasington says that the decrease in housing prices on the high end suggests police may be overfunded in richer communities. “If you cut police taxes and services, the high end views that as a good thing,” he said. “There would be an increased demand for those houses because of the tax cut and a decreased supply of houses,” he added.
He also says there could be value in looking into how other types of levies impact home prices, and what these big swings on high- and low-income areas mean for the middle class, in future research.
But for lower-income communities, he says the data from this report suggests additional spending on crime-fighting could be worth it. “There’s something about housing demand that says, ‘We need more police funds,’” he said.
Next Lives Here
The University of Cincinnati is classified as a Research 1 institution by the Carnegie Commission and is ranked in the National Science Foundation's Top-35 public research universities. UC's medical, graduate and undergraduate students and faculty investigate problems and innovate solutions with real-world impact. Next Lives Here.
Featured image at top of police car. Photo/iStock/Halbergman
Related Stories
CCM welcomes Sekyung Jang as Assistant Professor of Music Therapy
June 12, 2026
UC College-Conservatory of Music Dean Pete Jutras has announced the appointment of Sekyung Jang, PhD, as CCM's new Assistant Professor of Music Therapy. Her faculty appointment officially begins on Aug. 15, 2026, and Jang will work with college leadership to develop a new program in Music Therapy at CCM in partnership with UC's College of Medicine and the Osher Center for Integrative Health. Jang is an educator, scholar and music therapist passionate about fostering a culture of learning in which students feel safe to explore new ideas, make mistakes, and freely and respectfully receive and give feedback. Jang’s teaching is characterized by a balanced combination of lectures, experiential learning opportunities, and discussion-based instruction that helps students integrate theory and practice.
Pocket-sized population threat
June 10, 2026
The Financial Times took a deep dive into why populations around the world continue to be on the decline. The publication cited new University of Cincinnati research as part of the investigation that looks at the fall of fertility in the digital era.
UC physician-researcher's work yields landmark five-year data for Crohn's disease drug
June 8, 2026
The University of Cincinnati College of Medicine’s Anita Afzali, MD, leads a landmark study revealing five-year efficacy and safety data for a Crohn’s disease drug called guselkumab.